Tampa Bay Rays

September Baseball

This is the best time of year for baseball. It’s the last month of the season and the pennant races are heating up, while some are in cruise control. This is the time of year when the little names can become big names and the big names can get booed. Just ask A-Rod about the booing.

This could be the year when the Yankees string of playoff appearances comes to an end and the string of playoff appearances for the Rays begin. It does seem odd to think that Tampa Bay will be in the playoffs and Yankees will not.

While not yet a lock, it looks as if the Rays and the Angels will make the playoffs. Boston will most likely get the wild card and the Central will come down to the last week, or even the last day as Chicago and Minnesota are battling.

You have to respect Minnesota: no matter whom they lose (Johan Santana), they just keep on winning and competing for the playoffs every year. Billy Beane has nothing on these guys.

The one thing to look for in the last 25 games in the A.L. is a push by the Red Sox to win the division. They are 4 games out, and it will be interesting to see if the young Rays can hold the Red Sox off when it comes to crunch time.

In the N.L. there is a tight race in the East between the Mets and Phillies. I think I’m going with the Phillies. They have finally gotten Jimmy Rollins and Brett Myers going and Jayson Werth is a stud in the making. The Cubs and the Brewers are the class of the N.L. The Cubs have a 5 game lead in the division, which they should win, and the Brewers should take the wild card.

The N.L. West is still up for grabs with most people looking at the race between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers. I say also keep your eye on Colorado. Tulowitzki and the rest of the gang are starting to heat up, and the pitching is pretty good in Colorado if Jimenez can find some consistency.

Colorado is only 5 games back of the Diamondbacks. We all know that Colorado can catch fire and we also know that the Diamondbacks are barely a .500 team. If the Diamondbacks go 12-12 to finish the season, Colorado can tie them by going 16-6. Colorado has the ability to do that and the Diamondbacks could easily finish up the last 24 games worse than 12-12. I actually think the Dodgers will win that division, but Colorado is not to be dismissed.

The last month is going to be interesting and the playoffs are always interesting.

As if the Rays Needed a Challenge

Tampa, known only for futility, is now is the position of having to fight off the two most dominant baseball franchises over the past decade to win their division. That is a difficult enough a challenge for a franchise that is just learning how to win, but now they have to do so without a couple of their best players.

Carl Crawford may be done for the year, and Evan Longoria is going to be out at least 2-3 weeks. This is much more damaging than just losing offensive punch and speed on the bases. This is messing with team defense and, in turn, messing with the pitching staff that has been so good this year.

Crawford and Longoria are two of the best defensive players in baseball. The real secret to the Ray’s success this year has been their defense. The young pitching staff has the confidence to throw strikes because they know the defense will be there. If some balls starting landing in the gaps and getting over the third base line, those close games during the heat of the pennant race will go the other way.

There is very little room for error in the last 45 games if the Rays are going to win the A.L. East. They are up 4 games on the Red Sox and 9 games on the Yankees. That is a little breathing room, but not enough of a lead to relax. This would be an easy time for the young and inexperienced Rays to fold. The Rays have already passed their highest win total in franchise history, and they still have 45 games left to play. They could easily pack it in and call it a successful season.

I don’t think this team will do that. I don’t think Madden will let it happen. The Rays have a large enough lead and decent enough replacements that they can hold up for a couple of weeks while Longoria heals. Hopefully, Crawford will not have to have season ending surgery and will be back to man left field.

These injuries will certainly make things tougher for the Rays, and I suppose we will just have to wait and see how they handle. I would like to see some new blood in the playoffs or at the very least an interesting pennant race.

Is it possible the Red Sox are Finished?

Many thought the Red Sox may be the best team in the baseball going into the season, but they are now in jeopardy of not even making the playoffs. Their star of the past 8 years has moved out to the West coast and out of their hair. Some may say that losing Manny means the end of the Red Sox. The Red Sox may be through, but it has nothing to do with Manny.

The A.L. is incredibly competitive this year, more so than any year in recent history I believe. When the 10^th best team in the league (Oakland) is still in the race for a wild card spot, there is some serious competition.

The Red Sox may be finished, but it has nothing to do with Manny. Actually, I think the Red Sox will be better with Bay in the lineup. Bay is younger, has more speed, doesn’t have the Manny mood swings, and is actually have a better statistical year than Manny. Manny is not the Manny of a few years ago. He is not a .320 hitter with 45 home runs and 130 RBI. Manny, if he had decided to actually play, would have finished the season with probably 30 home runs, 100 RBI, and a .300 average. Bay will end with about those same statistics, and with the move to the righty-friendly Fenway, he will probably end up with 35+ home runs. And by the way, Bay can play a defense, which is something Manny did only on special occasions.

The reason the Red Sox may be done is that they don’t have the best team in the A.L. and they may not even have one of the top 4 teams in the A.L. The Rays are not slowing down, the Yankees and White Sox made moves to improve, Detroit is getting hot, and the Twins are still in the mix if they can get Liriano out of the minors.

I am not trying to say that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs. I am simply saying that one month ago I would have said the Red Sox would almost certainly make it to the playoffs, and now I would not make such a statement. Out of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Twins, White Sox, Tigers, and Angels, 3 of these teams have to go home before the playoffs start. Can anyone really be that confident that the Red Sox will make the cut?

Are the Cubs and Angels Separating?

Of course it is still only the regular season, and there are a little over 50 games left to be played, but a couple of teams are starting to move ahead of the rest of the pack. The Cubs have won three straight against the top 3 Brewers starters and the Angels just swept the Red Sox for the 2^nd time in a matter of two weeks.

The Brewers shut-down pitchers looked like number 5 starters and the Angels roughed up Dice-K and Beckett along with their young phenom Buchholz. These last few days have surely made many wonder if this is a sign of things to come in the playoffs.

The Cubs have the best 1-2-3 starting punch in the N.L. and have an offense that can hit the big bombs as well as manufacture runs with speed and timely hitting. Jeff Samarja-I don’t know how to spell his name correctly has nasty stuff and can either close, provide middle relief, or even move into the rotation if needed.

The Angels have a great bullpen, great rotation, and excellent hitting. They are the best team in baseball and have gotten even better with the addition of Teixeira.

Both these teams, barring a major collapse are going to be in the playoffs. And in baseball, we all know that anything can happen in the playoffs. That being said, the Cubs and Angels seem to be better prepared than most. In most cases, if you have 2 stud pitchers that can shut teams down, you win in the playoffs. The Cubs have 3 starters with dominant stuff. The Angels have 4 excellent pitchers, none of them blow you away, but Lackey, Santana, Saunders (Go VT), and Weaver make up the best rotation in the A.L.

I’m not about to predict what is going to happen in the playoffs, but the Cubs and Angels are the class of MLB right now. What is going to make the last 50 games interesting is all of the really good teams that are biting at their heels.

 

Bring on the Rookies

So far it has been a good year for the rookies. We all know about Govany Soto, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto’s 3 home runs in one game, and a host of other rookies that have made their presence known during the 2008 season. There are a few more that are starting to make some noise. This is the time of year when the young studs get called up from the minors to either help a contending team get over the hump, or help a struggling team build some experience for the future.

This can be good news for fantasy owners if you have a hole in your lineup and are hoping for a stud rookie to go on a tear. Here are a few rookies who have recently been called up and are playing well. These are guys who can really help your fantasy team in the stretch run.

Chris Davis 1B

This guy is a linebacker playing baseball. He is 6-4, 235 and has as much power as anyone in the big leagues. It’s almost not fair that a team that crushes the ball like Texas can just call this guy up from the minor leagues. In 79 at-bats so far, Davis has 8 home runs and 16 RBI with a .279 average. He is now the everyday 1B for the Rangers and only an injury will change that. He is available in about 50 percent of leagues, so if you have any room on your roster, pick this guy up immediately. Davis hit 36 HR in only 129 games last year in the minors and had 23 HR before being called up this year. He could crank out another 15 home runs for you by the end of the season.

Ian Stewart 2B/3B

Back for his second tour of duty in 2008, Stewart seems to have figured a few things out. He was striking out almost every time up before, but since being called back, Stewart is hitting .550 with 11 RBI’s in only 20 at bats. He has 2B eligibility which makes him all the more valuable. Stewart is a crusher who can also hit .300. He doesn’t technically have a starting gig right now, but Colorado is getting his bat in the lineup everyday now and if he keeps hitting, he will keep playing somewhere.

Adam Lind OF

They have been waiting for Lind to come around in Toronto for a few years now. He is not considered a rookie because he had 290 at-bats last year, but he was recently called up and has been hitting the ball well. In 99 at-bats this year, he has 5 HR and 22 RBI, while hitting .293. He is playing everyday and the Jays are going to give him a shot for the rest of the year.

Chris Volstad SP

Volstad is one of, if not the best, pitching prospect in the Marlins system. In his first start last week, he went 8 2/3 innings and gave up only 1 run, 1 walk and 5 hits. He only has 2 starts so far, but both have been really good. He is not particularly a strikeout pitcher, but he gets guys out. He is pitching for one of the best hitting teams in the NL and if he keeps pitching like he has, he can get you some wins down the stretch.

Armando Galarraga SP

This guy will win the A.L. ROY. He has been pitching lights out the whole season and no one is talking about him. He is available in about 30 percent of all fantasy leagues and the guy is 8-4 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Not only that, but he pitches for a contender down the stretch that is really starting heat up their massive bats. Last night he had a perfect game through 7 innings. Stop wasting time and grab this guy if you still can.

David Price SP

Price may be a little ways off, but he is probably the number one prospect in all of the minor leagues. This is more of a keep-your-eye-out for this guy pick. He was last years #1 pick in the draft and has been tearing up hitters at several different levels in the minors. He is the real deal! There is a good chance the Rays will call up just after August 1, after that, he could be used a little in the bullpen or if one of the starters get hurt or struggle, you may see him start a few games.

 

 

Now That Was An All-Star Game!

There came a point in last night’s All-Star game when I forgot that I was actually watching an All-Star game. No, it wasn’t after Dan Uggla’s third error; it was when the game actually began to look like a real game. It was when I was caring about who was going to win (I have a NL bias). It was when each play brought about anxiousness. It was really when I could tell that the players on the field actually seemed to care about the game.

Brad Lidge warmed up about a million times without whining and Brandon Webb and Scott Kazmir pitched when they were not supposed to. We are used to seeing pampered stars refused to get up and throw again, or not pitch at all to protect their arm.

Maybe it was the magic of Yankee Stadium, but that was the best All-Star game of the 24 ½ (can’t count the tie as a whole game) that I have seen. The pitching was great, there was timely hitting, great defensive plays, plays at the plate, and of course the extra innings. The 15 innings made it possible to actually see some guys hit more than once.

The best thing about the game was the emotion. The players and the fans had emotion. I believe it was the emotion and excitement of the fans that pulled the players along. I hate to say it, being a Yankee hater and all, but the fans were amazing.

I never thought I would say this, but I think the All-Star game helped the reputation of MLB. It certainly has come a long way from the tie a few years ago. Hopefully, this game was a sign of the excitement to come in the next half of the season and throughout the playoffs.

 

Comeback Seasons in the Making

If you took a chance on in your fantasy draft on a veteran with recent struggles, it may be paying off handsomely. There are a slew of veterans who, because of injury, bad karma or bad attitude, had a rough 2007 but are getting it done in 2008.

Some of these guys you figure will keep it going, others may not, and others may end up on the DL for long stretches. Take a look at this list of former All-Stars who are having a great start to 2008.

 

Jason Bay: In 2007, fantasy owners saw Bay, a second round fantasy pick, drop his batting average 40 points, and lose 14 home runs, 25 RBI’s and 23 runs from the season before. Not only that, but his 21 steals in 2005 dropped to 4 in 2007. Bay is making up for that this year. His batting average is up, and he is on pace for 40 home runs and 125 runs scored.

Miguel Tejada: A change in scenery and some lineup protection in the name of Lance Berkman seems to be just what the doctor ordered for Tejada. Tejada’s 2007 wasn’t that bad (.296, 18, 81, 72), but it was not what you have come to expect from the former MVP. This year he is hitting .329, and though he is on pace for only 17 home runs, he is in line to score 124 runs and produce 108 RBI’s.

Rafael Furcal: Some injuries slowed Furcal in 2007; even when he was on the field though, he did not look like his old self. Furcal is now on the DL, but is ready to come back soon. He began the season on fire and currently has a .366 batting average and 5 home runs in only 134 at bats. That tells you that his 20 homer potential is back. Furcal lost so much fantasy respect after last year, that I was able to draft him in my fantasy league with the 150^th pick.

Cliff Lee: I’m not even sure if it is the real Cliff Lee on the mound in Cleveland this year. He was excellent in 2005 with an 18-5 record and serviceable in 2006, but he was putrid in 2007. Can this guy really be the best pitcher in baseball? He even had a stint in the minors and finished 2007 as a middle reliever. You probably didn’t draft him in your fantasy league, so he may have been the biggest prize in your free agent pool.

Brad Lidge: His ERA is under 1.00 and his WHIP is 1.00. Lidge has 12 saves and is once again dominating with 26 K’s in 22 innings. Lidge began getting his stuff back last year, finishing the season with a 3.36 ERA and 19 saves. It was his 2006 that was awful as he compiled 32 saves but had an ERA over 5.00.

Troy Percival: Percival, who’ll turn 39 at the end of the season, is once again a very dependable closer on a winning team. His outings were ugly in 2006 with Detroit, and though he pitched well for St. Louis in 2007, it was limited middle relief duties. In 2008, he is once again relevant in the fantasy world. Of course, he did just land on the DL with hamstring issues.

Ervin Santana: Santana was never your fantasy ace, but he was a decent fantasy pitcher in 2005 and a good one in 2006. This year he is 7-2, which matches his win total from 2007. He is dominant at home and is pitching better on the road than in 2007. His wins and ERA are nice, but that WHIP of 0.99 is really helping your fantasy team.

Jose Contreras: Contreras was 10-17 with an ERA over 5.00 last year, and many thought the Julio Franco of pitchers was ready for the retirement bin. He has been excellent this season going 5-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. There is a good chance Contreras was not drafted either, but I bet he is on a roster in your league now.

 

There are a few others to mention as well. Mariano Rivera, after a relatively sub par season for him, is back to his old dominant ways. Kerry Wood seems to be coming around to his role as a slam the door closer. Mike Mussina is pitching much better than last year. Scott Rolen is looking pretty good in Toronto, but the DL is always looming over his head.

I don’t see all of these guys continuing to perform the way they have started the season. Several of these guys are bound to hit the DL and others, such as Cliff Lee, are just simply on fire and will cool down.

My prediction is that Tejada, Bay and Furcal continue their hitting with the contingency that Furcal must avoid the injury bug. As for the pitchers, Santana and Lidge should keep right on trucking, Percival is risky for several reasons, Contreras will slow down and be decent and Lee will slow down and be very good.

This just serves as a reminder to keep on eye on the veterans that slipped in fantasy status the year before. Many times they are your draft and free agent steals.

Look Who’s in First!!

You may have to do a double take when looking at the current MLB standings in the American League. Not only are the Tampa Bay “Not So Devilish” Rays out-pacing the Red Sox and the Yanks in the AL East, but they have the best record in the AL.

Of course, it is very early in the season, and to think they will hold off the Red Sox and the Yanks for the rest of the season is little on the crazy side, but the Rays are a good team. Actually, I am beginning to think they will end up with a better record than the Yankees. Let’s take a look.

The Rays have better pitching than the Yankees. Scott Kazmir and James Shields are legitimate stud pitchers. Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine are a better set of back-end starters than Andy Petite, Ian Kennedy and Darrell Rasner. The arms may fall off of Petite and Mussina at some point during the season and even if Phil Hughes comes back, he was horrible to start the season.

The Yankees have a good bullpen, but so do the Rays. The Yankees have an aging lineup that has a hard time staying healthy. The Rays have a young, talented lineup that can match that of the Yankees without all the fanfare and payroll implications.

The real question is not if Tampa is better than the Yankees; the real question is do the Rays have what it takes to make the playoffs in 2008. I think the Red Sox will win the AL East, but it doesn’t take a stretch of the imagination to see the Rays in the playoffs.

Looking around the AL, there is no team out there that you can point to and say is noticeably better than Tampa Bay. Anaheim will come out of the West, but Seattle does not look like the team everyone thought they would be. The same can be said for Detroit in the Central. The Central looks like Cleveland may win the division and Detroit is going to have to get things together if they want to compete for the division or a wild card.

Tampa has the talent this year to make the playoffs, whether or not they actually do. Pay attention, because I don’t see a collapse. I see a nice playoff race between Cleveland, Detroit, the Yankees, Tampa, and possibly Seattle that may go down to the last day.

American League Predictions for 2008

More idiotic predictions are about to be made. I would say that the Royals are going to win the whole damn thing, but I am only so much under the influence and not yet ready to say something so stupid. These predictions are here only to serve the purpose of allowing me to look back on them at the end of the season to see just how little I know about baseball. 

Here we go! 

AL East Winner

Boston Red Sox: I suppose this is the easy pick. I think Manny will be back to his old form and they have enough pitching. I do not think they are the best team in the AL. They will edge out the Yankees again, but neither team will have an impressive record. 

AL Central Winner

Cleveland Indians: I think they have more consistent pitching than the Tigers and will probably finish the season with the best record in the AL. If Martinez and Hafner can stay healthy, they are an excellent hitting team. 

AL West Winner

Seattle Mariners: This will be a battle with the Angels, but I think Seattle has a veteran team that is solid at the plate and they have improved their pitching.  

AL Wild Card

LA Angels: This is a tough call. I think it will come down to the Angels, the Yanks, the Tigers, and the White Sox. The Angels are solid in all facets of the game, whereas the other teams have weaknesses. I don’t think there is nearly enough pitching in either Detroit or New York, regardless of the amount of offense those guys have, and I don’t think the White Sox have quite enough talent to beat out the Angels. 

AL Champion

Seattle Mariners: Without a clear number one team in the AL, I am going to go with the team that I think has the best balance and the best combination of young talent and strong veteran leadership. Seattle can beat you with power, with speed, with their starters, and with their bullpen.  

AL MVP

Alex Rodriguez: I know it’s not the most creative pick, but why be creative when you can be right. He will jack another 50 home runs, hit about .320 and probably lead the league in RBI’s

Others to consider: Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera 

AL Cy Young

Felix Hernandez: He didn’t have the greatest year in the world last season, but he is nasty. He already has a good start to the season, and I believe this is the year he puts it all together.

Others to consider: Fausto Carmona, Daisuke Matsuzaka, C.C. Sabathia, Zack Greinke (watch this guy) 

AL Rookie Of The Year

Evan Longoria: He is in the minors right now, but that will not be for too much longer. Ryan Braun started last year in the minors and look what he did.

Others to consider: Daric Barton, Brandon Wood, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Bucholtz

So it looks as if I have the Mariners playing the Cubs in the World Series. Neither of these teams has won the World Series since over 99 percent of the current population has been alive. That means I am predicting something historical.

 

World Series Champion: SEATTLE MARINERS

Fantasy Preview—Closers

The closer position seems to be going through a changing of the guard.  It was only a few years ago when Rivera, Hoffman, Percival, Gagne, and Wagner were the elite.  Now only Wagner is still a top 5 closer.  The once un-hittable Rivera is still a very good closer, but he has lost some of his mystique. 

I have attempted to list the top 20 fantasy closers for 2008.  The number 1 spot on the list is a fairly new name, but he has proven himself over the last 3 years.  I think the top 3 guys are virtually the same and the only difference between them may be the amount of save chances they will have. 

I have moved Rivera down to 7^th on the list which may be crazy to some, but I think it has become apparent that he is not the closer he was before.  If Houston Street could stay healthy, he would be much higher on this list.  At the 20^th spot I threw in two names because of the injury situation in Toronto.  I think if we could be absolutely sure about B.J. Ryan, I would put him into the top 10.  Ryan may be able to go in the early season, but it is still a bit tenuous.  Accardo is a good replacement and drafting him as protection in a late round would not be a bad idea. 

1.)          J.J. Putz

2.)          Jonathan Papelbon

3.)          Joe Nathan

4.)          Francisco Rodriquez

5.)          Billy Wagner

6.)          Jose Valverde

7.)          Mariano Rivera

8.)          Takashi Saito

9.)          Bobby Jenks

10.)        Francisco Cordero

11.)        Rafael Soriano

12.)        Matt Capps

13.)       Houston Street

14.)        Manny Corpas

15.)        Trevor Hoffman

16.)        Jason Isringhausen

17.)        Joakim Soria

18.)        Brad Lidge

19.)       Chad Cordero

20.)        B.J. Ryan/Jeremy Accardo 

Others to Consider: Kevin Gregg, C.J. Wilson, Brandon Lyon, Joe Borowski, Troy Percival, Rafael Betancourt

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